The Fed, interest rates and recession | Michael Roberts Blog

On Friday, US stock markets fell to their lowest level since August 2015 in its third consecutive weekly decline. In many previous posts, I have argued that stock markets are really still in a long-term secular ‘bear market’ of decline.  Stock market values follow the profitability of capital and, as I have argued in other posts, the profitability of US capital has not yet reached the bottom of its current downwave that, in my view, began in 1997, with various upturns (2001-6, 2009-13).  If that is correct, then the US stock market (and others as well) have yet to reach …

A Man Is Trying To Sell His Car.

From crawl to crash?

The final figures for US real GDP in the second quarter of this year (April to June) were released at the end of last week.  They showed that the US economy was growing at an annual rate of nearly 4% (3.9%) in the summer after yet another poor first (winter) quarter of just 0.6% growth.  So, compared to summer 2014, the US economy has expanded by 2.7%.  Indeed, the US economy has been growing at that sort of rate for the last four quarters. However, before the cry comes that, finally, American capitalism is back on a sustained trend in …