The Fed, interest rates and recession | Michael Roberts Blog

On Friday, US stock markets fell to their lowest level since August 2015 in its third consecutive weekly decline. In many previous posts, I have argued that stock markets are really still in a long-term secular ‘bear market’ of decline.  Stock market values follow the profitability of capital and, as I have argued in other posts, the profitability of US capital has not yet reached the bottom of its current downwave that, in my view, began in 1997, with various upturns (2001-6, 2009-13).  If that is correct, then the US stock market (and others as well) have yet to reach …

Sell everything ahead of stock market crash, say RBS economists

Royal Bank of Scotland warns of ‘cataclysmic’ year with slumps in shares and oil and advises clients to shift to bonds Stock markets have already come under severe pressure in 2016, with the FTSE 100 down more than 5% in its worst start since 2000. Investors face a “cataclysmic year” where stock markets could fall by up to 20% and oil could slump to $16 a barrel, economists at the Royal Bank of Scotland have warned.In a note to its clients the bank said: “Sell everything except high quality bonds. This is about return of capital, not return on capital. …